The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.

The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.

I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.

Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.

Shakespeare's plays often turn on the idea of fate, as much drama does. What makes them so tragic is the gap between what his characters might like to accomplish and what fate provides them.

A lot of things can't be modeled very well.

If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.