The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.

I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.

We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.

Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

We look at all the polls, not just the Gallup Poll. So, it's kind of like if you have, you know, four out of five doctors agree that reducing cholesterol reduces your risk of a heart attack, Gallup is like the fifth doctor.

Shakespeare's plays often turn on the idea of fate, as much drama does. What makes them so tragic is the gap between what his characters might like to accomplish and what fate provides them.

Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.