The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.

The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.

People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.

We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.

Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome.