The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.

If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.

All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.

You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.

One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.

I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.