Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome.

One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.

I have the same friends and the same bad habits.

Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.

We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.

If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.

Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.