I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.

It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis.

Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

A lot of things can't be modeled very well.

Success makes you less intimidated by things.

I have the same friends and the same bad habits.

To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.