Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot.
To my friends, Iām kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.
You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'