I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'

I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.

The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake.

We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.

The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.

You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.