I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'

Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.

To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.

A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view.

People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.

Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.