To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.

Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.

The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.

Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that's what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent signal or noise

Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.

I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.

A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news.