To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.

You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.

There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.

Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome.

Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.

Data-driven predictions can succeed-and they can fail. It is when we deny our role in the process that the odds of failure rise. Before we demand more of our data, we need to demand more of ourselves.