Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.
The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.
Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
A lot of things can't be modeled very well.