Shakespeare's plays often turn on the idea of fate, as much drama does. What makes them so tragic is the gap between what his characters might like to accomplish and what fate provides them.

Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.

The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake.

People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.

We speak for them. We imbue them with meaning.

In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right.