The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.

You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.

The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.

Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.

On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves.

When a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we do not even think about it.