Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.

The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.

To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.

I don't think you should limit what you read.

I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'

On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves.

If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.