We look at all the polls, not just the Gallup Poll. So, it's kind of like if you have, you know, four out of five doctors agree that reducing cholesterol reduces your risk of a heart attack, Gallup is like the fifth doctor.

I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.

We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren’t very good at it.

Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that's what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent signal or noise

I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.

The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.

I actually buy the paper version of The New York Times maybe once or twice a week.