One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.

The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.

Success makes you less intimidated by things.

A lot of things can't be modeled very well.

If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot.

I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.

I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.