A lot of the time nothing happens in a day.
Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.
I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.