Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.

You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.

When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen

I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.

Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome.

The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.