Data-driven predictions can succeed-and they can fail. It is when we deny our role in the process that the odds of failure rise. Before we demand more of our data, we need to demand more of ourselves.

We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.

To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.

The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that.

I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.

People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.