Data-driven predictions can succeed-and they can fail. It is when we deny our role in the process that the odds of failure rise. Before we demand more of our data, we need to demand more of ourselves.

A lot of the time nothing happens in a day.

On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves.

We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren’t very good at it.

We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that.

We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.

To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.