On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves.

Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.

Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.

I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.

Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.

Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

I think punditry serves no purpose.