People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
Nate SilverThe thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.
Nate SilverPlenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
Nate Silver