You get steely nerves playing poker.

People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.

Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.

Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things.

New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.