There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.

If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.

We look at all the polls, not just the Gallup Poll. So, it's kind of like if you have, you know, four out of five doctors agree that reducing cholesterol reduces your risk of a heart attack, Gallup is like the fifth doctor.

People have different ways of interpreting history.

We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.

The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.