The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.

If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.

Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.

I have the same friends and the same bad habits.

If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.

Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.