The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.

We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that.

In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.

You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

Voters' memories will fade some.

I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.