The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.

There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.

People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.

Racism is predictable. It's predicted by interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races.

I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.

I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.