People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting.

Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right.

A lot of things can't be modeled very well.

I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.

We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that.

The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.