People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting.

You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.

People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.

I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.

Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.