People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting.

If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot.

I think punditry serves no purpose.

Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.

Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.

New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.