I think punditry serves no purpose.

Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.

If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it.

To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.

You get steely nerves playing poker.

The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.

Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.