To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.'

Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.

We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren’t very good at it.

Shakespeare's plays often turn on the idea of fate, as much drama does. What makes them so tragic is the gap between what his characters might like to accomplish and what fate provides them.

The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

I don't think you should limit what you read.

Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.