A lot of things can't be modeled very well.

The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.

There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.

Data-driven predictions can succeed-and they can fail. It is when we deny our role in the process that the odds of failure rise. Before we demand more of our data, we need to demand more of ourselves.

Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken.

I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.