Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
Nate SilverPlenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
Nate SilverIf you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it.
Nate Silver