I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.

I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.

We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.

One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.

The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.

I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt.