People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
Nate SilverOne of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
Nate SilverI love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation.
Nate SilverWhenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
Nate Silver