When a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we do not even think about it.
If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot.
Success makes you less intimidated by things.
The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.
There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.
When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen