We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren’t very good at it.
When a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we do not even think about it.
You get steely nerves playing poker.
Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things.
People have different ways of interpreting history.
A lot of things can't be modeled very well.