If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.

Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.

People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.

You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.

Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.

I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.