I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation.

People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that's what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent signal or noise

We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren’t very good at it.

I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.

Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.

I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have.