Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.

Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.

If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot.

Voters' memories will fade some.

One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.

Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken.