While knowing how to value businesses is essential for investment success, the first and perhaps most important step in the investment process is knowing where to look for opportunities
Seth KlarmanIt turns out that value investing is something that is in your blood. There are people who just don't have the patience and discipline to do it, and there are people who do. So it leads me to think it's genetic.
Seth KlarmanYou must buy on the way down. There is far more volume on the way down than on the way back up, and far less competition among buyers. It is almost always better to be too early than too late, but you must be prepared for price markdowns on what you buy.
Seth KlarmanLike to have a catalyst - reduces dependence on the market: Distressed debt inherently has a catalyst - maturity.
Seth KlarmanTargeting investment returns leads investors to focus on potential upside rather on downside risk ... rather than targeting a desired rate of return, even an eminently reasonable one, investors should target risk.
Seth KlarmanWall Street can be a dangerous place for investors. You have no choice but to do business there, but you must always be on your guard. The standard behavior of Wall Streeters is to pursue maximization of self-interest; the orientation is usually short term. This must be acknowledged, accepted, and dealt with. If you transact business with Wall Street with these caveats in mind, you can prosper. If you depend on Wall Street to help you, investment success may remain elusive.
Seth KlarmanHereโs how to know if you have the makeup to be an investor. How would you handle the following situation? Letโs say you own a Procter & Gamble in your portfolio and the stock price goes down by half. Do you like it better? If it falls in half, do you reinvest dividends? Do you take cash out of savings to buy more? If you have the confidence to do that, then youโre an investor. If you donโt, youโre not an investor, youโre a speculator, and you shouldnโt be in the stock market in the first place.
Seth KlarmanTo value investors the concept of indexing is at best silly and at worst quite hazardous. Warren Buffett has observed that "in any sort of a contest - financial, mental or physical - it's an enormous advantage to have opponents who have been taught that it's useless to even try." I believe that over time value investors will outperform the market and that choosing to match it is both lazy and shortsighted.
Seth KlarmanThe overwhelming majority of people are comfortable with consensus, but successful investors tend to have a contrarian bent.
Seth KlarmanWe work really hard never to get confused with what we know from what we think or hope or wish.
Seth KlarmanAt Baupost, we constantly ask: 'What should we work on today?' We keep calling and talking. We keep gathering information. You never have perfect information. So you work, work and work. Sometimes we thumb through ValuLine. How you fill your inbox is very important.
Seth KlarmanValue investors should completely exit a security by the time it reaches full value; owning overvalued securities is the realm of speculators.
Seth KlarmanBeware leverage in all its forms. Borrowers - individual, corporate, or government - should always match fund their liabilities against the duration of their assets. Borrowers must always remember that capital markets can be extremely fickle, and that it is never safe to assume a maturing loan can be rolled over. Even if you are unleveraged, the leverage employed by others can drive dramatic price and valuation swings; sudden unavailability of leverage in the economy may trigger an economic downturn.
Seth KlarmanThe inability to hold cash and the pressure to be fully invested at all times meant that when the plug was pulled out of the tub, all boats dropped as the water rushed down the drain.
Seth KlarmanThe strategy of buying what's in favor is a fool's errand, ensuring long-term underperformance. Only by standing against the prevailing winds - selectively, but resolutely - can an investor prosper over time. But for a while, a value investor typically underperforms.
Seth KlarmanWe are not so brazen as to believe that we can perfectly calibrate valuation; determining risk and return for any investment remains an art not an exact science
Seth KlarmanAll an investor can do is follow a consistently disciplined and rigorous approach; over time the returns will come
Seth KlarmanIn contrast to the speculators preoccupation with rapid gain, value investors demonstrate their risk aversion by striving to avoid loss.
Seth KlarmanDo not accept principal risk while investing short-term cash: the greedy effort to earn a few extra basis points of yield inevitably leads to the incurrence of greater risk, which increases the likelihood of losses and severe illiquidity at precisely the moment when cash is needed to cover expenses, to meet commitments, or to make compelling long-term investments.
Seth KlarmanBe indifferent if you lose your short term clients, remember they are your own worst enemy
Seth KlarmanBy investing at a discount, Benjamin Graham knew that he was unlikely to experience losses.
Seth KlarmanValue investors will not invest in businesses that they cannot readily understand or ones they find excessively risky. Hence few value investors will own the shares of technology companies. Many also shun commercial banks, which they consider to have unanalyzable assets, as well as property and casualty insurance companies, which have both unanalyzable assets and liabilities.
Seth KlarmanTypically, we make money when we buy things. We count the profits later, but we know we have captured them when we buy the bargain.
Seth KlarmanMost institutional investors feel compelled to swing at almost every pitch and forgo batting selectivity for frequency.
Seth KlarmanWhile it might seem that anyone can be a value investor, the essential characteristics of this type of investor-patience, discipline, and risk aversion-may well be genetically determined.
Seth KlarmanHaving clients with a long-term orientation is crucial. Nothing else is as important to the success of an investment firm.
Seth KlarmanAs Graham, Dodd and Buffett have all said, you should always remember that you don't have to swing at every pitch. You can wait for opportunities that fit your criteria and if you don't find them, patiently wait. Deciding not to panic is still a decision.
Seth KlarmanYou probably would not choose to dine at a restaurant whose chef always ate elsewhere. I do eat my own cooking, and I don't "dine out" when it comes to investing.
Seth KlarmanThe government - the ultimate short-term-oriented player - cannot withstand much pain in the economy or the financial markets. Bailouts and rescues are likely to occur, though not with sufficient predictability for investors to comfortably take advantage. The government will take enormous risks in such interventions, especially if the expenses can be conveniently deferred to the future. Some of the price-tag is in the form of back- stops and guarantees, whose cost is almost impossible to determine.
Seth KlarmanA tipping point is invisible, as we just saw in Greece. In most situations, everything appears fine until it's not fine, until, for example, no one shows up at a Treasury auction.
Seth KlarmanAvoiding where others go wrong is an important step in achieving investment success. In fact, it almost assures it.
Seth KlarmanNowhere does it say that investors should strive to make every last dollar of potential profit; consideration of risk must never take a backseat to return. Conservative positioning entering a crisis is crucial: it enables one to maintain long-term oriented, clear thinking, and to focus on new opportunities while others are distracted or even forced to sell. Portfolio hedges must be in place before a crisis hits. One cannot reliably or affordably increase or replace hedges that are rolling off during a financial crisis.
Seth KlarmanBecause investors are not usually penalized for adhering to conventional practices, doing so is the less professionally risky strategy, even though it virtually guarantees against superior performance.
Seth KlarmanOnce you adopt a value-investment strategy, any other investment behavior starts to seem like gambling.
Seth KlarmanThere's no such thing as a value company. Price is all that matters. At some price, an asset is a buy, at another it's a hold, and at another it's a sell.
Seth KlarmanInvestors should pay attention not only to whether but also to why current holdings are undervalued. It is critical to know why you have made an investment and to sell when the reason for owning it no longer applies. Look for investments with catalysts that may assist directly in the realization of underlying value. Give reference to companies having good managements with a personal financial stake in the business. Finally, diversify your holdings and hedge when it is financially attractive to do so.
Seth KlarmanSuccessful investors like stocks better when theyโre going down. When you go to a department store or a supermarket, you like to buy merchandise on sale, but it doesnโt work that way in the stock market. In the stock market, people panic when stocks are going down, so they like them less when they should like them more. When prices go down, you shouldnโt panic, but itโs hard to control your emotions when youโre overextended, when you see your net worth drop in half and you worry that you wonโt have enough money to pay for your kidsโ college.
Seth KlarmanSpeculators are obsessed with predicting: guessing the direction of stock prices. Every morning on cable television, every afternoon on the stock market report, every weekend in Barron's, every week in dozens of market newsletters, and whenever business people get together. In reality, no one knows what the market will do; trying to predict it is a waste of time, and investing based upon that prediction is a purely speculative undertaking.
Seth Klarman