It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.

There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.

Some achieve a reputation for great successes when in fact all they have done is take chances that reasonable people wouldn't take.

Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty.

We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.

A large portion of the weekend effects is explained by differences in the amount of time spent with friends or family between weekends and weekdays.

So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.