People tend to assess the relative importance of issues by the ease with which they are retrieved from memoryโand this is largely determined by the extent of coverage in the media. Frequently mentioned topics populate the mind even as others slip away from awareness. In turn, what the media choose to report corresponds to their view of what is currently on the publicโs mind. It is no accident that authoritarian regimes exert substantial pressure on independent media. Because public interest is most easily aroused by dramatic events and by celebrities, media feeding frenzies are common
Daniel KahnemanYou should expect little or nothing from Wall Street stock pickers who hope to be more accurate than the market in predicting the future of prices. And you should not expect much from pundits making long-term forecasts.
Daniel KahnemanMost of the time, we think fast. And most of the time we're really expert at what we're doing, and most of the time, what we do is right.
Daniel KahnemanThe amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
Daniel Kahneman