An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same.

There are some conditions where you have to trust your intuition.

One of the problems with expertise is that people have it in some domains and not in others.

The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.

In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.

In strategic decisions, I'd be really concerned about overconfidence.

It's a wonderful thing to be optimistic. It keeps you healthy and it keeps you resilient.