Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me.
Daniel KahnemanThere are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
Daniel KahnemanThe illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
Daniel Kahneman