The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.

We don't see very far in the future, we are very focused on one idea at a time, one problem at a time, and all these are incompatible with rationality as economic theory assumes it.

It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.

Mood evidently affects the operation of System 1: when we are uncomfortable and unhappy, we lose touch with our intuition. These findings add to the growing evidence that good mood, intuition, creativity, gullibility, and increased reliance on System 1 form a cluster. At the other pole, sadness, vigilance, suspicion, an analytic approach, and increased effort also go together. A happy mood loosens the control of System 2 over performance: when in a good mood, people become more intuitive and more creative but also less vigilant and more prone to logical errors.

If there was one ubiquitous recommendation about marriage it was this: "Don't go to bed angry."

Some achieve a reputation for great successes when in fact all they have done is take chances that reasonable people wouldn't take.

An executive might have a very strong intuition that a given product has promise, without considering the probability that a rival is already ahead in developing the same product.