Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
Daniel KahnemanIt doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
Daniel KahnemanThe idea that you can ask one question and it makes the point - well, that wasn't how psychology was done at the time.
Daniel Kahneman