An executive might have a very strong intuition that a given product has promise, without considering the probability that a rival is already ahead in developing the same product.

However, optimism is highly valued, socially and in the market; people and firms reward the providers of dangerously misleading information more than they reward truth tellers. One of the lessons of the financial crisis that led to the Great Recession is that there are periods in which competition, among experts and among organizations, creates powerful forces that favor a collective blindness to risk and uncertainty.

A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise.

The extra daily social time of 1.7 hours in weekends raises average happiness by about 2%.

Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.

Question: So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market? Answer: "They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen."

An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.