An executive might have a very strong intuition that a given product has promise, without considering the probability that a rival is already ahead in developing the same product.

The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.

In strategic decisions, I'd be really concerned about overconfidence.

We can't live in a state of perpetual doubt, so we make up the best story possible and we live as if the story were true.

Knowing the importance of luck, you should be particularly suspicious when highly consistent patterns emerge from the comparison of successful and less successful firms. In the presence of randomness, regular patterns can only be mirages.

We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.

Groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.