An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same.
Daniel KahnemanThe amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
Daniel KahnemanWhen action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.
Daniel Kahneman