If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
Daniel KahnemanWe are often confident even when we are wrong, and an objective observer is more likely to detect our errors than we are.
Daniel KahnemanMood evidently affects the operation of System 1: when we are uncomfortable and unhappy, we lose touch with our intuition. These findings add to the growing evidence that good mood, intuition, creativity, gullibility, and increased reliance on System 1 form a cluster. At the other pole, sadness, vigilance, suspicion, an analytic approach, and increased effort also go together. A happy mood loosens the control of System 2 over performance: when in a good mood, people become more intuitive and more creative but also less vigilant and more prone to logical errors.
Daniel Kahneman