We are often confident even when we are wrong, and an objective observer is more likely to detect our errors than we are.
Daniel KahnemanYou should expect little or nothing from Wall Street stock pickers who hope to be more accurate than the market in predicting the future of prices. And you should not expect much from pundits making long-term forecasts.
Daniel KahnemanIntelligence is not only the ability to reason; it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.
Daniel Kahneman