Finally, the illusions of validity and skill are supported by a powerful professional culture. We know that people can maintain an unshakeable faith in any proposition, however absurd, when they are sustained by a community of like-minded believers. Given the professional culture of the financial community, it is not surprising that large numbers of individuals in that world believe themselves to be among the chosen few who can do what they believe others cannot.
Daniel KahnemanWhen action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.
Daniel KahnemanAn executive might have a very strong intuition that a given product has promise, without considering the probability that a rival is already ahead in developing the same product.
Daniel KahnemanDoubting what you see is a very odd experience. And doubting what you remember is a little less odd than doubting what you see. But it's also a pretty odd experience, because some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them, and that happens to be the case even for memories that are not true.
Daniel Kahneman