Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
I've just always been a bit of a dork.
We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.
When a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we do not even think about it.
I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt.