You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.

People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.

The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake.

I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'

Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.

Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately.

You don't want to treat any one person as oracular.