We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.

If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.

Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.

Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.

To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.

In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right.

I think punditry serves no purpose.