I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.

There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.

I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.

Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.

Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.

The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.