The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
Nate SilverTo be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.'
Nate SilverNew ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
Nate SilverI was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
Nate SilverActually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
Nate Silver