Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.

Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things.

If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.

One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.

The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

When a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we do not even think about it.

Voters' memories will fade some.