Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.

In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right.

Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.

Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

When a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we do not even think about it.

Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.

I have the same friends and the same bad habits.