Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.

The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.

I don't think you should limit what you read.

If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.

Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that's what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent signal or noise

Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in it's entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or thirteen-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next 'Twilight' movie.