If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot.

We speak for them. We imbue them with meaning.

I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation.

Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that's what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent signal or noise

The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.

If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it.