We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.

People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.

Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.

I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt.

Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken.

The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake.