Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.

My impression is that the elimination of memories greatly reduces the value of the experience.

To know whether you can trust a particular intuitive judgment, there are two questions you should ask: Is the environment in which the judgment is made sufficiently regular to enable predictions from the available evidence? The answer is yes for diagnosticians, no for stock pickers. Do the professionals have an adequate opportunity to learn the cues and the regularities? The answer here depends on the professionals' experience and on the quality and speed with which they discover their mistakes.

We are very influenced by completely automatic things that we have no control over, and we don't know we're doing it.

It's a wonderful thing to be optimistic. It keeps you healthy and it keeps you resilient.

There is general agreement among researchers that nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not-and few of them do-are playing a game of chance.

You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.